AI and Its Place in Social History

Two points here: pace of AI penetration and how to understand that penetration.

To get to 50 million users, the automobile took five decades.  Pokeman Go got there in a few days.  Other apps reached that number in a matter of weeks.  AI will be here in spades immediately, if not yesterday.  You cannot duck it.  Educational systems need to train for it, and I don’t mean just blocking term papers written by chatbox tech; the future of work and information is about to be permanently and radically transformed.  If schools lately have taught to the test, today they must teach to the AI future.

The AI transformation has been characterized as so powerful and disruptive that it will be comparable in impact of the Industrial Revolution.  Stop and think about that.  The Industrial Revolution for the following century, and in many ways still today, has caused massive human misery in social fabric, economics, human values, societal equity.  The fearful have a point to be cautious.  I fear that the closer analogy is to atomic energy: huge pluses, huge risks of a cataclysmic nature.

Posted in AI

AI Understood– Maybe

This is the first in what I envision as a series of posts tracking developments in AI.  Two schools of thought are emerging.  The first is that AI is the future of progress and work and a great boon to civilization.  The second is that AI may well spell the demise of liberty.  Both views share the view that AI is on the march and its primacy is inevitable.

Some simple understandings set forth below:  for these understandings I credit the New England Chapter of National Association of Corporate Directors, which ran a program yesterday to address the promise of AI and the role of the board of directors in handling this tool.  (Disclosure: I am a member of NACD/New England, served on its Board and now am on its Advisory Board.)

Simple takeaways:  AI is not new; ask Alexa, ask Seri, and note robotic telephone sites as simple examples.  Algorithms that drive AI have been with us for very many years.  The explosion of AI power is based upon the convergence of three things: vast explosion of data that can be utilized by the algorithms; more powerful computing that can rapidly handle huge data sets; massive increase in data storage technology at low cost.

Simple facts: Business people see profit and efficiency.  Scientists see pluses and minuses and some are carried away by potential; today’s on-line NY Times carries a story of a Microsoft research paper claiming development of AGI [get used to the new shorthand–this is “artificial general intelligence” which means thinking just like a human being].  Everyone recognizes that AI reaches out for analogy when lacking specific data and hence often generates inaccurate output (kindly called “hallucinations”).

Hype and risk abound.  From time to time I will post about both.  I will not post ChatGPT generated text, in case you were wondering.

SEC Heightens Regulation of Advisers to Private Funds

The SEC has enacted new regulations effecting required reporting on the part of hedge fund and PE fund advisers, some of which are focused on disclosing events within the the management structure and some of which are designed to signal economic concerns.  Various regulations become effective at the six-month and twelve-month marks after enactment.

Aside from rather straight-forward management matters such as removal of general partners and certain fund-termination events, large PE funds will be required to report general or limited partner claw-backs on an annual basis.

In my view, the most interesting regulations are aimed at alerting investors to possible investment performance trouble.  Reports are required as to events which could stress the fund or harm the investor, extraordinary investment losses, margin and default events, major events involving prime broker relationships, and important withdrawal and redemption events.

Commentary from SEC Chair Gensler noted the expansion of the power and impact of these private funds on the broader capital markets.  No doubt true, but these regulations surely also reflect the majority Commission view that tighter regulation and disclosure is required across the investment infrastructure landscape

 

Stock Buy-Backs: New SEC Regulations

Today, the SEC announced new Rules requiring wide disclosure relating to corporate redemption of shares.  Buy-backs are huge (in 2021, they totaled $950 Billion), and have been occasionally questioned in the liberal press as events that wrongly reward investors, while the purchase price paid for redeemed shares might have been better used to enhance the company.

Disclosure now is required from redeeming corporations about the obvious (what was redeemed at what price), the suspicious (what did insiders, officers and directors do with their shares around the time of redemption) and perhaps most interesting, the corporate objective for the buyback, and how the redemption decision was reached.

It will be interesting to see how companies explain why returning money to investors was smarter than investing in company growth. Investor return is, after all, the object of investment….

ESG Wars

The battle over whether ESG belongs in investment decision-making, and whether failure to adhere to ESG principles can lead to litigation against companies, has  created some very curious legal situations.  The two below are wholly unrelated, but also illustrative of what it looks like in the weeds of ESG sensibilities.

Last month, Congress actually agreed on something: they sent to the president a bill that would not permit the US Department of Labor to allow regulated funds to take ESG into investment considerations.  The presumable argument is that ESG may have a downward pressure on profits, hurting worker beneficiaries.  President Biden used his first veto to strike down the law, leaving ESG as a permitted investment consideration in regulated plans.

Two days ago, Wells Fargo moved to dismiss a class action lawsuit brought on behalf of  current Wells Fargo shareholders.  Bear with me here.

*In 2020 WF adopted a policy requiring that diverse candidates constitute at least half the interviewees for high-paying jobs; the definition of diversity was broad and included women also.

*It is alleged that some WF employees conducted interviews after some slots were filled so as to reach the 50% level of interviewees.

*The suit complains that WF propped up the price of its own stock by such practices, and failed to report that WF was not complying with its own DE policy; during this time of allegedly propped-up stock prices, WF repurchased its own shares.

*When it became clear that the WF policy was allegedly not being followed, the share price fell.  SO—the claim is that if WF had not lied about complying with its own policy, the price of the stock would have dropped earlier and then the price of redeeming the stock at inflated valuation cost the company an extra $4.1 billion dollars.  A breach of fiduciary duty by management is alleged.

Putting aside what appears to be a clever basis for the claim and putting aside whether alleged facts are true, this case demonstrates another subtle way  in which ESG can  become relevant in the securities markets– all without regard to the question of whether ESG outside of investment practices is or is not a social benefit.

Who Can Sue if a Registration Statement is Misleading?

For a long time, it has been settled law that if you bought shares on a public offering and if the prospectus was materially deficient, and if then the price of the shares you purchased fell, then you the investor had a claim for damages under applicable Federal securities laws.  It also seemed clear that this claim was for the benefit of purchases of shares covered by that erroneous filing.

It also was thought that, if someone purchased shares not issued pursuant to the incorrect prospectus, then the purchaser could not make a claim for losses arising from that prospectus since the purchased shares were not “covered” by the disclosures therein.

The US Supreme Court is soon to hear arguments over whether a purchaser of shares of the same class as those covered in the prospectus but not included in the registered securities, and who bought such shares at a higher price because of that erroneous prospectus, can claim damages by reason of buying shares NOT covered by that public offering.  In this case, the shares had not been previously registered and were thus by definition issued under the prospectus.  To decide in favor of the plaintiff would upset Federal law in the seven Federal circuits which have decided such a case and also per a prior SCOTUS decision.

If the Supreme Court decides that unregistered shares are transferred subject to the accuracy of public disclosures in a prospectus, then the potential plaintiff class is greatly expanded, as is the risk of the issuing company; the company then would be in effect making representations of facts to all of its shareholders.  The impact of such a determination on disclosure by registrants, risk metrics considered by underwriters, and the cost of insurance is not known but is potentially material.

Ivy League Athletes Sue Colleges for Price Fixing?

I am not making this up.

It was reported two days ago that two Ivy League student athletes, a male and a female it seems, have sued all eight Ivy League schools, asserting a class action on behalf of more than 10,000 of their cohorts, claiming  –  wait for it — wait for it —claiming an agreement among those schools (via action of the Ivy League Council of Presidents)  to not grant Ivy Division 1 athletes an athletic scholarship or other incentives to attend, the injury to two distinct classes being that the cost of education increases and that compensation received by the athletes decreases.

Both named claimants, btw, seemingly did receive need-based financial help from their school (Brown, which is in Rhode Island while the litigation was filed in Connecticut where only Yale resides, for no doubt tactical reasons unknown to this writer).

To be fair, the Sherman Act (enacted I recall in 1890 when college students who might have raised this argument at that time would likely have been caned and then expelled) does prohibit price competition in relevant markets; and it is alleged that there are two markets here: smart kids who want to play Division 1 sports and athletic services provided by those students who are admitted.

To date there has been just one response from the Ivy League, which I find interesting but really not on point: it suggests that athletic scholarships might be taxable income to the students.

Given the intense scrutiny of university discrimination by our current US Supreme Court, it is interesting to speculate what they might do with this claim if it gets that far. Stay tuned (or not if you have bigger fish to fry, but I am going to follow this as it is just so darned interesting).

The Crisis in VC Financing

Everyone seems to know that VC financing in the current environment has dried up to a material extent.  The statistics demonstrating this fact, as set forth in the current issue of Economist magazine, are startling in confirmation, with the greatest impact on the largest deals; seems that seed capital is less impaired, and indeed robust in AI, albeit on tougher terms.

Yesterday’s Webinar presented by the Boston Bar Association, featuring VC lawyers in US and the West Coast (often somewhat disparate markets), explored the numerous practical ramifications of the current environment on actual deal terms for those companies lucky enough to get an actual proposal to invest.  Too numerous to list all, nonetheless below are some of the highlights (or for the company, lowlights).

Pre-money valuations are down of course, that comes with the territory by definition.  Larger equity deals may feature milestone release of funds based on progress of the company, redemption rights for investors, payment of cumulative dividends and even grant of security interests in assets for convertible notes (making them more like real notes), super-preferred returns for preferred classes (eg rather than having a distribution preference equal to cost, the preference before the common participates might be two times cost).

Deals also may provide for full-ratchet repricing of conversion rates to common rather than the typical (and statistically fairer) repricing over the total outstanding shares (the latter actually adjusts properly for the financial harm suffered by the earlier higher-priced preferred).

With convertible notes, aside from now looking like real notes, investors are insisting on receiving warrant coverage in greater amounts, particularly if milestones are not hit.

Investors in all deals are bargaining for greater corporate control: class votes on a broader list of corporate actions, more negative covenants, more board power.

When investors in prior rounds participate in a subsequent round which is a down round (eg the pre- money valuation is less), investors are sometimes insisting on recapping the entire company and repricing their prior investments to the lower valuation.  As a practical matter, also, prior investors are less likely today to waive the anti-dilution protections they obtained in their prior investment (which was often done because the company really needed new money or prior investments were imperiled).

Recapitalizations driven by investors, particularly those who already held an investment, raise fiduciary issues for directors, particularly nominees of the prior VCs and management holding common; recaps help new money investors and the price to be paid is paid by prior classes of stock.  (These fiduciary issues are not herein addressed.)  As to substantive deal terms, recaps often include addition of pay-to-play provisions, forced conversion of prior preferred to common, rights offerings, resetting preferred valuation of prior preferred.

Not addressed in the program was the prior practice in early rounds of requiring management holding large amounts of common to enter into forfeiture agreements whereby outstanding common shares are forfeited back to the company if the employee leaves or is terminated–  a somewhat draconian provision, but with persuasive investor logic behind it; and, incredulity expressed by founders in early rounds, particularly by founders who have not only sweat equity but also cash in the deal.  Empowered investors these days will be more likely to be  aggressive as to this practice.

One can speculate that seed and early stage companies may turn to more self-financing and to non-dilutive funding and joint venture models, in the face of the aggregate dilutive pressure these realities suggest.  Or– just wait it out, though the trough in VC financing in the early 2000s lasted, if I recall correctly, several years.

NLRP Restricts Contents of Certain Severance Agreements

The National Labor Relations Board ten days ago declared it an unfair labor practice, when offering a severance agreement to an employee, to include in that offer either a broad confidentiality provision or a broad non-disparagement agreement, which terms have been standard in such documents.

While the legal basis for this ruling is rooted in a provision of the National Labor Relations Act which ensures free communication among employees, and thus this ruling does not affect exempt employees (management and certain other senior-level workers), this radical departure from long-standing practice is further indication of the general approach of appointees of the current administration: to protect workers at all levels against pressure from employers.

(Reference is made to our post of late January which reported that the Federal Trade Commission declared general non-comps and non-hiring provisions upon hiring to be illegal (though employment lawyers do see some ability to craft limited restrictions based on specific facts, so that ruling is a story in progress).

In  moving away from Trump-era regulation, the NLRB is seeking to permit former employees to assist coworkers with workplace issues, terms of employment and disputes.  The ruling further makes clear that the mere offering of a noncompliant severance agreement is unlawful, even if rejected by the employee.

If I may be allowed an observation about lawyering: the changes in Federal administration these days sometimes create wide policy swings on the regulatory level (not just labor; look at anti-trust, SEC, etc.)  which whipsaw businesses and drive management to seek counsel from attorneys to readjust standard practices.  No doubt these swings in policy reflect the increased differences in policy held by the political parties, and the stridency with which adherence to those policies is sought both within and outside the government structures.  Current politics may well be described as the “Perpetual Full Employment of Lawyers Program.”

Chatbox as a Destroyer of Worlds?

Bing’s Chatbox has been much in the news and much reviled on several levels; the New York Times a few days ago did quite a number on its allegedly dangerous functionality.  To me, there was an eerie similarity to the first part of the story line in the movie Terminator I.

May I have the temerity to suggest that you follow this link to another of my blog sites to read an extended and irreverent commentary on the potentially imminent Chatbox War?  http://www.SMHonigAuthor.com

Enjoy!