Quantum Computing (sort of) Demystified

Source of information: a great program zoomed today by New England Chapter of National Association of Corporate Directors (I am formerly on their Board, now Advisory and on Program Committee). Forgive this simplistic outline but it helped me understand — to a point.

Today’s computers run on chips which carry a multitude of transistors.  They process “bits” which are either a 0 or a 1.  Quantum computers (which do not yet exist) will work with quantum bits (qubits) each of which will contain a 0 and a 1.  They exist in this state of “super-position” and working together they can engage in “entanglement” to quickly process information. A quantum computer will have no chips, just qubits. Such computers are some years away (who knows? 3? 10?) but will apply to all current uses of our computers and thus impact all functions of all industries. The duality of the form of each qubit seems based on quantum mechanics.  (My rudimentary understanding, having to do with a cat that is inside and outside an enclosure at the same moment, requires acceptance of such ambiguities.  At this point, scientist reading this post may snigger.)

How do you generate and maintain qubits.  Seems there may be several ways.  One presenter in the development business says his company brings single atoms to absolute zero temperature and then lasers them.  The quibits levitate in a cold vacuum; this avoids among other things the heat generated by current computers and prevents the atoms from wandering off into the environment.

Quantum computing is not AI, although they can work together.  Present computers with chips all can use AI.  But scientists are using AI to design quantum computers.  And once quantum computers exist, AI can monitor for and correct errors in quantum computer output (hybrid computing).

Illustrative use cases: as quantum computing will be so much faster than current technology, it can speed: predicting efficacy of proposed drugs at an earlier stage of analysis of biological interactions; early detection of Parkinson’s; pricing with greater accuracy; supply chain logistical planning; develop more robust encryption (which will be needed as quantum will be better able to break current encryption).

Time line and capital: incredible amounts of money are being applied by major established companies (IBM, Google) and venture capital is flowing into smaller companies.  Quantum will “arrive” in some years but not more than ten (it was predicted), the acid test being an ability to run a large number of qubits for a long period of time without error.  Once quantum is established, there will be rapid expansion of the technology (application of Moore’s Law to quantum).  Presently DARPA is monitoring about a dozen companies to see which one(s) first can establish operational levels.

Board and investor issues: first and obviously, stay closely attuned to respond quickly, substantively and as to your encryption systems.  Do not expect semi-conductor systems to be outdated very quickly.  Watch robust foreign efforts in quantum, particularly in China.  Stay in touch with your supply chain, understand it.  If you are involved with crypto,  seems quantum may create risk for early stage enterprises and with respect to lost keys (these are issues also under current technology; I confess to have been weak on understanding the brief crypto segment).

The panel, biased of course by being in the quantum field (which of course does not make them in error), predicted huge upheavals by the end of the next decade.  One slide shown in the presentation predicted hundreds of billions of dollars of sales; this by major prediction sources.

My major take-away was being encouraged to follow/read the literature.  Seems that quantum is understood by some very well-versed people to be the next big big thing.  Would not want to miss it. My posts fall in categories and, in expectation, have just created a new category: “Quantum.”

 

DEI: We Cannot Define it But Better Not Do It

One of President Trump’s first actions in office was to issue executive orders:

banning hiring discrimination, which was deemed to include many then-extant DEI programs, and to terminate all DEI and environmental justice programs, for contractors or grantees of federal funds; and

requiring all Federal contractors and grant recipients to certify that they do not operate any programs promoting DEI that violate Federal anti-discrimination law.

Almost immediately a Federal judge issued a preliminary injunction preventing, in effect, enforcement of the key provisions of the Executive Orders.  DEI was under attack, but the risk of incurring treble damages and penalties for violation did not exist during the injunctive period.

Last Friday, the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals struck down the injunction, thus making active and effective the provisions banning DEI programs and requiring certification that no DEI programs were in force.

The Federal Government  has a fraud initiative to assess damages and penalties against any recipient of Federal funds that violates federal civil right laws, which now bar an unclear range of DEI programs but surely prohibit racially based programs.  This suggests that holders of government contracts or grants need to audit their DEI practices.  But further, the Executive Orders ban such DEI programs generally, in the marketplace.  It is quite likely that the sheer existence of such programs will result in suit by the US Attorney General even in contracts not involving the government.

And as noted in my firm’s Alert on this subject there is lack of clarity as to what is in fact permissible in a hiring policy; see http://www.duanemorris.com and click Alerts.  It is likely now a good time to offer the self-serving suggestion that legal counsel may be helpful in navigating this dangerous area.

Chinese Geopolitics Revisited

While generally I do not post on such topics, I feel compelled to point out the below comment on the contents of my last two posts.  Those posts report on the views of a  noted expert on Chinese affairs and how to interpret them if you are a board member.  In brief summary, these prior posts reflect his advice that a) things with China are better this year and focus should be on engaging with China at this point in time, and b) he was optimistic that China would not move against Taiwan for many years, if ever, given factors noted in that prior post.  And near the end of his remarks, he emphasized the need to keep current and his primary recommended resource was The Economist magazine.

Last night I dutifully read a fairly current Economist  issue (January 31) and found a somewhat contradictory analysis of China’s near-term actions as evidenced by purges of the military by President Xi.  In overview, the article concluded that the purge, aside from further cementing Xi’s power, might evidence greater Chinese aggression against Taiwan.  The removal of one senior general was said to eliminate one ;possible high command voice that might mediate that risk.

I must also report, yesterday having repeated some negative thoughts about Chinese military power, that by 2035 China will have six more aircraft carriers.

I feel compelled to make this post, inviting readers to take a careful ongoing look at the risks of Chinese engagement.

 

Mandate for Directors/Navigating the Global Economy

This post addresses remarks by Admiral Jim Stravidis to the New England Chapter of National Association of Corporate Directors.  My prior post outlined the Admiral’s understanding of the world order today and its immediate geopolitical prospects.  He emphasized that directors must have a deep understanding of the world order in setting policy for American companies.  It is up to the board to deep dive into strategic planning; management is so busy with the day-to-day running of an enterprise that it is the board that should undertake the background thinking, bringing that to board meetings where it can be evaluated by management.

Hand in hand with the board’s need to have deep understanding of the world order is the necessity for the Board to maintain high levels of personal information about world business markets.  In this regard he offered a reading list of two books and two publications: The Thinking Machine by Jensen Huang (CEO of Invidia); 1929 by Andrew Ross Sorkin (a sobering read); weekly read of the magazine The Economist; current business news through the Financial Times.

Doubling down on the emphasis on having robust current information to set policy, he suggested consideration of retaining a consulting firm for further support.

Board thinking should include a “Plan B” if the primary plan does not work as anticipated. Look to history for guidance.

What are the major business areas of opportunities today?  Here his advice centered on major enterprises.  But if you are not a director of an enterprise of such substance as to be in the market directly to participate, what if any is your strategic opportunity to support these opportunities?

The nine areas of major opportunity today:

  1. Engage with China.  Fight the reticence.
  2. Work to “rewire” business with the oil powers: Iran, Venezuela, Russia.   (I note his supposition that oil will remain a very major commodity; never in an hour and half did he mention/tout renewables/global warming factors.)
  3. Rebuilding Ukraine (major business opportunity; historical analogy was rebuild of South Korea; no mention of Gaza btw).
  4. India–crucial.
  5. Brazil: not as big as India, but big.
  6. AI (no surprise here).
  7. Defense spending. Trump in the US, NATO countries in Europe, Japan doubling military budget, India.
  8. Quantum Computing (details unclear but in five years will be “huge”)
  9. Cyber Security (this is a policy matter for board, not to be left to the techies)

Of these, the one most surprising to me was reference to quantum computing and I am intending to attend the March 3 upcoming online program put on by NACD-New England (which sponsored the Stavridis program herein discussed), entitled “Quantum Computing: Staying Ahead of the Technology Curve.”  Search for NACD-New England on line to sign up.  (Note: I am former board member and current advisory board member of this NACD chapter.)

Global Power and Global Markets

This and the next-following post will report highlights from an hour-and-a-half presentation by Admiral Jim Stavridis, who tackled the definition of the current balance of world power and the impact of that balance on current and future global markets.  Lest you sense this will be a superficial meander, let me list the speaker’s background: four star admiral, principal aide to Rumsfeld, head of NATO, Chair of the Rockefeller Foundation, dean of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,  presently is a sitting public company, director and Vice Chair of Carlyle Group (an investment fund with diversified ownership of tech and non-tech businesses).  Anyone can be wrong about anything, but he surely has the background to command our attention.   

The USA: The largest US trading partner by far is the European Union.  US relations to day are under some strain due to tariffs (see my prior recent post), Greenland, and cost of supporting NATO.  Greenland seizure has some strategic logic but it  has been owned by Denmark for 700 years, so likely that “crisis” will pass as Europe has “stood up.”  Tariffs seem destinated to settle at 15% for EU, both ways.  EU and US positions on Ukraine at this moment seem to be coming together in a joint proposal.

The Pacific: Arena is full of democracies which is good:  Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand.  Tariffs stress but not “serious.”  Allies to US are bonded by risk / hedge against China.

China: Important to US by reason of supply chain and as a purchasing client.  Trump currently planning to visit China (and Xi to US).  Do not panic today. Will China invade Taiwan, a perceived risk.  Not likely in next 5-10 years and after that we shall see.  Unless Taiwan announces it is independent!  Chinese military is large enough but not easy to invade over water and Taiwanese topography difficult.  Chinese nilitary is untested, not having fought since 1949 in any significant way.  Forces are not broadly deployed; they lack seasoned generals; capturing the chips  industry may well not be viable reason to invade as  chip suppliers are diversifying around the world; the world having come to defense of Ukraine is an object lesson, as are sanctions thereby triggered against Russia commercially.  And after a few years the landscape may change anyway.

“Global South”: He includes Africa, South America: commercial importance coming for Brazil, Nigeria, particularly India.  This diverse area is coming into its own.  Big changes in production, markets.  Brings half the world’s population on-line which increases gross human capital which is always a plus (more brains at work): area holds 3.5 Billion people.  India is a key element; just announced was a tariff deal with the US in the 15%-18% range if India eschews Russian Oil.  He also sees India in favorable light as a “democracy”–no mention of past Modi issues.

“Russia”: Evil dictatorship, bringer of death, killer of political opponents and journalists.  Trump is beginning to recognize this.  Invasion of Ukraine united Europe, drove northern Europe into NATO, drove all Europe to boost military spending.  (Fascinating note on military spending: US budget even before Trump’s recent announcement at a vast proposed increase is $900B; Russian $150B; China $250B; EU at $500B is larger than China and Russia combined.)

Iran: Iran in next few years will change regimes, rejoin the world.

Venezuela: Note speaker also was once head of US Southern Defense forces.  With Maduro gone and the acting president showing promise, this may prove not to be a problem  He trusts Rubio and thinks he can handle this (and Cuba).  And US military action would not be a big deal, will not upset world economy or order.  Everyone in South America understands that the US may invade and it has not mattered to the world.  In the past 150 years the US has sent armed forces into South and Central American countries 56 times.  Still could go sideways but if oil companies over the next 3-5 years step in, assume risk (most not there how), assist country economy, things will be further helped.

Overall, the US still has substantial viable alliances around the world and “the system is holding.” It is vital for US foreign policy and thus for US business to understand the current and evolving world situation.    The next post will discuss how boards of directors, informed by the foregoing, should act in connection with setting corporate policy.

 

 

Tariffs for All

Tariffs are in the news for obvious reasons, and below presents a brief overview.

On Inauguration Day the President issued his America First general trade policy statement.  On February 21 he issued his Memorandum of an American First Investment Policy. Tariffs arise under these policies and under various specific laws, are impacted by trade deals and agreements, and import and export controls.

[Separately but reflecting the same “America First” bias, certain increased restrictions now exist on inbound investment under the so-called CFIUS regimen and outbound limitations under the COINS Act and the BIOSECURE Act.  A full summary would far exceed the scope of this post, but may be addressed in another post in the future.]

Tariffs set on Chinese imports, at this moment set at 10%, have been as high as 20% for much of 2025; special tariffs for Canada (now at 35% except for energy and potash) and Mexico (presently 25% except for potash) are somewhat mitigated by the US Mexico Canada Act for certain compliant products.  (Note also that the President, speaking January 14, 2026 at a Ford plant, asserted that the USMCA was “irrelevant” to the United States.)

Another class of tariffs aimed at tariff reciprocity with certain other countries, were addressed in Executive Order 14527 issued April 2, 2025, and rates thereunder were adjusted by Executive Order 14326, July 31, 2025, from 10% to 41%.

Across the board, exemptions from all tariffs for low value imports have been eliminated: for China in May of 2025, for all other countries in August of last year.

Although subject to ongoing challenge, under the general tariff laws some countries have been targeted with specific tariffs on select goods (Brazil at 40% for most goods; India at 25%).

At present there are special tariffs as high as 50% on imports of steel and aluminum (with specific impact on auto imports), copper, timber, semiconductors and some materials; current investigations are ongoing as to pharma, aircraft, silicone, unmanned aircraft, wind turbines, certain robotics and medical equipment.  Further, there are pending programs looking to higher tariffs in 2027 on Chinese semiconductors, Chinese shipping, Nicaraguan labor rights, Brazilian trade practices (ongoing), and international seafood.

The list of specific country-wide trade deals announced last year includes fifteen countries and the EU.

Federal agencies policing fair trade (US Customs Border Protection and Department of Justice) have beefed up their enforcement, have formed a Trade Fraud Task Force and are using the False Claims Act to encourage whistleblower actions.  Other initiatives are extensive and granular, relating to new rules or bans on certain territories, specific Russian companies (oil), supply chains, a National Defense Strategy to support the US Homeland and its critical interests in the Western Hemisphere.

Foregoing is my best understanding as of today.  I urge readers to be alert to the lay of the land, but do NOT rely on specific tariff provisions of today to remain accurate  in the future.  Businesses need to engage tariff advisers or law firms to determine daily specifics and to identify longer-term trade strategies.

Musk–the One Not in Perfume

Elon moved Tesla from Delaware to Texas; the fight he had in Delaware courts is still continuing–why?

One of my law partners attempted to explain the history of the fight over Musk’s huge compensation package, dating back to 2018.  Actually, some of it is technical legal stuff, and some of it is pretty boring, but the overall picture gives insight into Musk’s incredible focus and the law’s turgid and sometimes overly technical path.  Plus, all things Musk-ish seem to intrigue.

Let’s go back to 2018 when, having successfully obtained huge compensation packages from his board in 2009 and 2012, Musk got a new, multi-billion dollar pay package approved even though he did not have full voting control of the company (and thus the power to pack the board with his personal minions). Delaware law would have applied a more stringent test to board approval (eg a shareholder vote being required) if he controlled the vote to name all directors as a mathematical matter — part of the Delaware balance between favoring corporate management while providing some ultimate protection to shareholders.

Shareholders promptly sued to block the deal, claiming the directors breached their fiduciary duty in approving the huge package.  In October, 2022, the Delaware Chancery Court took five full days of witness testimony, concluded that given his successful past performance and reputation Musk had “soft” or de facto control of the board; the package was voided as there was no shareholder vote.  Plaintiff’s lawyers were awarded $345 Million in attorney’s fees.  [Millions I said–not a typo]

Musk picked up Tesla at that point, moved it to Texas and advised all successful companies to leave Delaware.  He got his raise under Texas law.  But Delaware was not finished with him.

In December of 2025 the Delaware Supreme Court (it sits above Chancery) unanimously reversed the lower court decision, finding that given Tesla’s performance since 2018 Elon deserved the money; they awarded nominal damages of one dollar [a single dollar, not a typo] and killed the $345 Million legal fee; now I am a little fuzzy but I think I heard my partner say that though the plaintiff shareholders lost their lawyers still got a $54 Million fee (last time I lost in court, I didn’t even get carfare home).

The decision turned on factors of how remedies were pleaded, and the Supreme Court (unanimously) failed to address the issue of Musk’s control of the board, nor the fairness of the compensation package, nor the propriety of the board’s original approval.

But wait; there’s more.  The whole episode has led Delaware to amend its corporate statute, only to be faced with litigation that doing so is unconstitutional.  I will spare you the details.

I would be remiss here if I did not put in a plug for our Delaware office, fully expert in all legal matters of Delaware corporate practice.  It seems that no one should just read the Delaware statute and come to the belief that they are clear on what they should be doing.  Forewarned is forearmed.

 

2026 Insights on the Medtech/Bio Front

This post, longer than most (apologies), reflects take-aways from a one-hour zoom program reflecting thinking at the annual January San Francisco conference on medtech held under JP Morgan auspices.  That zoom was sponsored by MassBio and I am told it was recorded and will be made available; below is my summary and omits some discussion and is intended to be suggestive and not definitive. Speakers included an investment banker, two attorneys and one medtech in-house counsel.

  1. Is 2026 going to be a good year?  Some optimism but no one predicts a boom in funding or M&A (perhaps exits?).  Pessimism in 2025 was based on politics, tariffs, US economy generally, international events; perhaps those factors are today better understood and perhaps players are more willing to deal, but those concerns continue to some degree.  Some areas seem poised to be strong (see below) and one new development is seeming willingness of lenders to support strong emerging companies with non-equity (debt) funding.  Much emphasis on importance of having companies seeking funding or M&A getting their houses in order as diligence will be intense: do you have right people, do you know your market, are you offering something that moves a needle rather than being a modest increment, do you understand applicable reimbursement, do you have strong financial projections.
  2. The future is much about applying AI to bio and medtech.  Strong view that the future is NOW.  Companies that will succeed will be applying AI to process and product fully, and not on a trial balloon, testing basis.  Do players have a plan to integrate AI and have the staff that can use it fully now?  AI as part of the “service offering is a requisite.”  Further, AI  in health care will result in operational efficiency so the lack of staffing today will be eased as doctors and care givers are relieved of many tasks and are able to focus on application of medicine.  Finally, note Open AI and Anthropics have released recent advances in AI to improve medtech, telling you the AI community is active in positioning in medtech.
  3. Beware mid-term elections.  Emphasis is on doing deals before mid-terms, which likely will affect many factors regardless of which party wins and will take time to assess  in terms of investment, market and M&A.
  4. Tariffs had some impact on planning in 2025 and less impact on markets; they remain a question, caused movement of manufacture and supply chains onshore.  Remain a factor in an unknown environment.
  5. Improved health does not reduce need for medicine, procedures, etc; rather as people get healthier they live longer, need more, increase need for procedures.  A major factor that is not yet fully understood is the effect of progress in weight loss.  Rough example: someone weighs 500 pounds, dies or if survives has no incentive to improve body to be functional and live longer; someone down to 200 pounds wants to replace the knee, fix the shoulder, attend to medication more assiduously, etc.
  6.  Acknowledging mixed view of prospects for 2026, what areas are thought to be most promising for funding, M&A?  Cardio, women’s health (with one dissent from the sole female panelist), surgical visualization, ortho, robotic surgery (as use of machines is adopted by more and smaller hospitals).  But nothing “frothy” is to be expected; these are measured predictions.

 

AI: Not Monkey Business

In 2018 a Federal Circuit Court denied copyright protection to a black macaque monkey who took his own selfie, holding that the Copyright Act required the copyright applicant be a human being.

I am not making this up.

This year the United States Supreme Court has just been asked to consider the denial of copyright to a work wholly authored by a machine, with no human creative contribution.  The application claimed the author was not the company or person that pushed the button on the machine,  but the machine itself.  The Court below, which denied the copyright, had noted that certain works created with the “assistance” of AI, in which created human choices determined the expressive outcome, might be granted statutory protection; but this test case specifically avoided that path for protection by listing the machine itself as author.

The Copyright Act predates AI and machine writings and thus does not specifically bar machine output from protection.  However, strong clues in the statute make clear that the legislation had human beings in mind: for example copyright protection is expressly stated as extending for “life plus 70” years.  But science has marched on, the Copyright Office itself has issued policy papers regarding AI (without abandoning insistence on human input), Congress has looked at the legal landscape (but has yet to act).

Human writers of course are suffering the fear of competition from machines in the writing of books, articles, movie scripts and the like.  To my personal knowledge I know of a friend whose livelihood as an articles writer disappeared well before today, replaced by AI-generated copy.  And AI can, and will, continue to write things that are in the public domain; it is just a question of whether such things will be protected from copying, or whether they can be freely copied as far as the Federal Copyright Act is concerned.  I hesitate to speculate as to whether protection of machine writing might be asserted under theories of unfair competition, noting that I have not seen that argument yet advanced.

If your business produces writings using AI, or hires third parties to perform those tasks, there are methods available to document human input; call your local friendly business lawyer to learn more.

 

Posted in AI

SEC Frees Public Companies to Reject Shareholder Proposals

[It has been two months since my last post; not that things of interest did not occur, but rather the pace of business, my publication of another book (my eleventh, written with my son Peter, entitled Honig & Son, is available on Amazon) and a birthday vacation to San Juan all conspired to secure my silence.]

Note first that the SEC now has only one Democratic Commission member which means, conversely, that the Republicans are fully in charge.  It is no secret that the tendency of the current Republican consensus is to regulate business less.  Consistent with this tendency, the SEC announced yesterday that it would no longer review requests from public companies relating to their proposed refusal to bring shareholder resolutions to a vote.  In the past, companies typically requested assurance, based on stated facts, that the refusal to bring nonbinding policy matters to a vote (usually involving social issues, the environment or the like) would not run afoul of SEC action.

The effect is that companies will be free to proceed without checking with the SEC– that was always the case, but readers of the tea leaves see this announced policy a evidence of a permissiveness by the SEC and a willingness to rely on corporate judgment.

There is a caveat suggesting questions under Delaware law touching on nonbinding proposals may be answered by the SEC, but that if a reporting company gets a legal opinion that the proposal is not “proper” under Delaware law then that judgment will prevail.  If you find the Delaware situation a bit confusing, you likely are correct.

Needless to say, the sole Democratic SEC commissioner stated yesterday that  this policy was “an act of hostility toward shareholders.”  The historic tension between Republicans and Democrats on the SEC Commission continues unabated, and since the President controls appointments the general views of the administration in power continues to filter down to SEC policy.