Source of information: a great program zoomed today by New England Chapter of National Association of Corporate Directors (I am formerly on their Board, now Advisory and on Program Committee). Forgive this simplistic outline but it helped me understand — to a point.
Today’s computers run on chips which carry a multitude of transistors. They process “bits” which are either a 0 or a 1. Quantum computers (which do not yet exist) will work with quantum bits (qubits) each of which will contain a 0 and a 1. They exist in this state of “super-position” and working together they can engage in “entanglement” to quickly process information. A quantum computer will have no chips, just qubits. Such computers are some years away (who knows? 3? 10?) but will apply to all current uses of our computers and thus impact all functions of all industries. The duality of the form of each qubit seems based on quantum mechanics. (My rudimentary understanding, having to do with a cat that is inside and outside an enclosure at the same moment, requires acceptance of such ambiguities. At this point, scientist reading this post may snigger.)
How do you generate and maintain qubits. Seems there may be several ways. One presenter in the development business says his company brings single atoms to absolute zero temperature and then lasers them. The quibits levitate in a cold vacuum; this avoids among other things the heat generated by current computers and prevents the atoms from wandering off into the environment.
Quantum computing is not AI, although they can work together. Present computers with chips all can use AI. But scientists are using AI to design quantum computers. And once quantum computers exist, AI can monitor for and correct errors in quantum computer output (hybrid computing).
Illustrative use cases: as quantum computing will be so much faster than current technology, it can speed: predicting efficacy of proposed drugs at an earlier stage of analysis of biological interactions; early detection of Parkinson’s; pricing with greater accuracy; supply chain logistical planning; develop more robust encryption (which will be needed as quantum will be better able to break current encryption).
Time line and capital: incredible amounts of money are being applied by major established companies (IBM, Google) and venture capital is flowing into smaller companies. Quantum will “arrive” in some years but not more than ten (it was predicted), the acid test being an ability to run a large number of qubits for a long period of time without error. Once quantum is established, there will be rapid expansion of the technology (application of Moore’s Law to quantum). Presently DARPA is monitoring about a dozen companies to see which one(s) first can establish operational levels.
Board and investor issues: first and obviously, stay closely attuned to respond quickly, substantively and as to your encryption systems. Do not expect semi-conductor systems to be outdated very quickly. Watch robust foreign efforts in quantum, particularly in China. Stay in touch with your supply chain, understand it. If you are involved with crypto, seems quantum may create risk for early stage enterprises and with respect to lost keys (these are issues also under current technology; I confess to have been weak on understanding the brief crypto segment).
The panel, biased of course by being in the quantum field (which of course does not make them in error), predicted huge upheavals by the end of the next decade. One slide shown in the presentation predicted hundreds of billions of dollars of sales; this by major prediction sources.
My major take-away was being encouraged to follow/read the literature. Seems that quantum is understood by some very well-versed people to be the next big big thing. Would not want to miss it. My posts fall in categories and, in expectation, have just created a new category: “Quantum.”