The devil is always in the details when it comes to taxes, and the assumption that companies will just look at the cash that is sitting overseas, and may choose to repatriate it onshore and pay 10% (under the Trump plan) and pocket the other 90% or send it out to shareholders is, shall we say, a large cart before a questionable horse.

First, Trump’s plan is mandatory; whether you bring the money on-shore or leave it off-shore, you pay the tax.

Second this is a tax on past profits, not cash.  What if the company has spent a large part of past profits?  It will owe a tax and will have to fund it with on-shore cash. Or borrowing?

Third, there is a fear that companies will use the extra cash to intensify acquisitions, which may drive up target value and in any event may not increase jobs.

Fourth, there are other plans on the table for this; Speaker Ryan’s plan differs in material ways.  Whose plan, or what hybrid, gets adopted.

Finally, and this has long fascinated me: when the Republican Congress which is always budget-sensitive runs into a combination of proposed tax cuts and increased military and infra-structure spending, what happens?

Will Congress roll over and build deficit?  Will they reduce tax cuts?  Will they cut spending?  If they cut spending, where? Not military; not infrastructure….Cost to borrow will go up also.   How much can be cut from social programs before voters get disturbed?

It just may be that the repatriation of offshore profits will be viewed by the administration as a needed revenue pop and thus increase the likelihood of its adoption in some form.

As with much this coming business season, stay tuned.  But get it out of your head that all US companies with international operations are about to be awash in free cash; it depends.