First, apologies for not posting for a while but have been traveling and also working on my publishing; most recent book of poetry, Unrequited Evils, is now available at Amazon books and as always I am appreciative for your support in purchasing and posting a review.  ‘nuf said.

The economy is one of the dominant themes in the news, both generally and perhaps more so today given governmental moves that will impact business (and law) significantly; there is much to touch upon while wholly avoiding politically partisan observations.

Uncertainty has not to this date restrained the stock market, but an early look at my practice indicates no significant uptick in M&A notwithstanding the alleged presence of lots of “dry powder” (I have three client businesses for sale sitting on my desk without clear traction at this very writing).  The legal press recently noted an increase in “down rounds” in VC investments.  It seems clear that turmoil in the medical marketplace is making medtech investment move more slowly.  It may be that the unclear impact, and US governmental view, of  AI also is creating confusion — see my firm’s February 12 “Alerts” post on US government guidance on US of AI in medtech at http://www.duanemorris.com

I also want to give a shout-out to two recent monthly posts by a consulting firm, Capital Restoration.  (Disclosure: a principal in that firm is a personal friend and former client)  Their micro-analyses of current statistics offer a somewhat cautionary look at where the economy is going (which of course impacts your and my business and personal interests). Their advice suggests the following:

*Inflation is back and not at this point do they cite tariffs.  January CPI up .5% (that’s 6% annualized).

*Purchasing is down: retail sales, including in January where typically consumers spend for clearance items; auto sales (down 3%!); e-commerce down almost 2%.  Some of this may be fire-related or weather-related, but one might expect e-commerce to thrive.

*Drastic reductions in Federal spending, triggering lay-offs which of course create unemployment  (citing government agencies, NGOs, hospitals, auditing firms, major tech firms (Meta, Microsoft), airlines, financial services firms)

*Federal budget deficit of $36 Trillion (annual interest cost of $1.4 Trillion) with personal income tax revenue of $2.4 Trillion (and I personally note Trump’s stated intent to extend his income tax cuts) is problematic (quoting Capital Restoration, “the numbers simply do not add up”).

Now this commentary does not address any possible good news arising from the new Administration’s policies (tariffs are protective of American business and the government is very pro-business, etc.).  But unbundling what is happening to arrive at a rational projection for the economy strikes me as not possible as of this moment, and I can offer no clues based on what I see coming across my personal desk.